07 Jan The Path to $476k Bitcoin in 5 to 10 Years – Calculation Included
With all the hype and Bitcoin price projections in the market right now, much of it lacks good data references and/or realistic assumptions; to that end, below is my take on such a calculation. I ran an earlier calculation in 2014 with a 1 to 2% assumption of global money supply and came up with $150k. Since conservative mainstream sources such as JPMorgan are indicating the $150k target, the longer term future seems to need an update.
Bitcoin to $476k in 5 to 10 Years
- Bitcoin Supply: 21MM (high possible total) & 18.5MM (current & low)
- Bitcoin Current Price: ˜$37k
- Global Money Supply* = ˜$200 Trillion
- data based on this chart https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2020/
- Gold Gold Market: ˜$10.9 Trillion or ˜5% of Global Money Supply
- Conversion to Bitcoin from 5% of the Global Money Supply (roughly equivalent size to the Gold Market)
- Likely only 10 to 30% move from Gold and the rest from other sources
- 5 to 10 year adoption timeline
- Bitcoin supply will be less than 21MM. The actual value will adjust slightly higher based on supply.
- $200T * 5% = $10T from Global Money Supply (Bitcoin Market)
- $10T / 21MM Bitcoin Supply = $476k for 1 Bitcoin
- Rises to $540k per coin if closer to18.5MM Bitcoin Supply