02 Jan First Bitcoin — tough lessons and moving beyond regret
I’m one of those people who heard about Bitcoin earlier and dismissed it on the basis of it being de-legitimized by major investors who I respect. Moreover, I personally thought that I had enough confidence in the financial system to repair itself. A fantastic video series by Ray Dalio for example explains well how markets can function efficiently — in theory — on an abundance of credit.
…but I never investigated the theoretical foundations for crypto // blockchain in general, and this was a huge, huge mistake.
Even this year, I remained focused on growing my company after the pandemic caused an immediate loss of 40% of our business. I did not want anyone on staff to lose a job and I wanted the company to survive, so I focused on the business and grew it by 300% by the end of the year. We hired more people and laid off no one.
I am immensely proud of this accomplishment, but I am humbled by what was clearly hubris. Years ago, had I sat down and investigated for myself the cause for excitement of the brilliant community involved in crypto, I would have been incredibly bullish immediately.
In fact, I would have been a dedicated HODLer and would have possibly gone into a crypto // blockchain related field. Man, I would have made a killing — I’m sure many of us feel this.
It’s a shitty feeling, but it’s also the sort of feeling that can help one learn.
The lessons, at least for me, are as follows: (1) listen and examine closely a passionate minority opinion, because the wisdom you learn could be incredibly valuable; (2) validate for yourself — earnestly — whether a minority opinion makes sense to you, and you can find yourself enlightened.
Bitcoin has a lot in common with other social movements, including ones such as Black Lives Matter, in that it brings to the surface and proposes solutions to heinous problems in our civilization that require a progressive, innovative mindset and set of policy prescriptions. And not all of them will work out — for example, Bitcoin maybe isn’t that immediate currency exchange system it intended to first become.
However, Bitcoin reminds me of Netflix in that Netflix knew immediately it wanted to be the first in digital streaming, but it turned out that DVDs by mail was the gateway to being first to market in that eventual category based on the timing of the venture’s launch.
Well, Bitcoin CAN eventually function well as peer to peer currency exchange, but the store of value consensus as a replacement for gold seems to be Step 1 on a much longer journey.
The people in charge and beneficiaries of the status quo don’t like any of this. Honestly, had I simply heard that an Afghan woman saved herself through use of BTC and authoritarian governments were cracking down on miners — in order to protect their currencies — holy shit I would have bought in on that premise alone.
Well, I’m proud to say that I made my BTC and ETH investments to start this past week. And, yes, I missed the wonderful ride thus far, and yes, I would NOT be surprised if there was a massive correction that short-term killed my investment — at least on paper.
HOWEVER: I 100% BELIEVE in this movement for a fairer, more sensible financial future, and whether my latest investment crashes (and I hope it does so that I can buy more BTC and ETH!) I will continue to buy systematically every week in perpetuity with whatever I can.
And I will HODL, HODL, and HODL some more until governments and society fucking get it: for fiscal and financial prudence now and in the future, convenient printing of money is not the same as creating value; an immutable consensus of value is what creates value.
We’re very close to $30k, and clearly the only answer is to buy with what you can afford to currently stake — and then to keep doing so on a regular basis regardless of the price. Why? Because you are investing in an inevitable future. Invest in the vision, not the coin.
Thanks for reading.
TLDR: Arrogance caused me to miss BTC // ETH for years. Tons of regret. Just made my first investments and I will HODL and keep investing no matter what. Lessons — listen closely to talented groups of people and investigate the potential wisdom for yourself, regardless of the unpopularity of the opinion.